For thirty years the rule of global trade was simple: make each part wherever it was cheapest, and ship it. That rule built the supply chains behind almost everything you own. Many big manufacturers now say they keep a second supplier in another region.¹ Most big manufacturers now keep a second supplier outside China.

It is now being rewritten. Governments are paying firms to move factories home or to friendly countries, and adding checks on what can be sold to whom. The clearest example is the race to build chip factories at home.³

Who Pays for Resilience

A second supplier costs money, and someone always pays for it: shoppers through higher prices, or taxpayers through subsidies. Neither shows up on a customs form. The IMF estimates that a deep split into rival trading blocs could cost the world economy up to 7% of output in the long run.² That bill lands on someone.

The bill grows with every border a product crosses. Global value chains, where parts cross borders several times before a product is finished, account for almost half of world trade.⁴ Each crossing is a place where a new rule can bite.

The Case for Reshoring

When one factory makes most of a vital part, a single fire, flood or blockade can empty shelves on three continents. Paying more for a second source is insurance, and some goods, like chips and medicines, are worth insuring.

Which Goods Matter

The better test is narrower: which goods truly can’t be bought elsewhere in a crisis, and which are simply cheaper from a rival? Most things you buy are the second kind.

That test won’t settle every case. But it moves the argument from slogans about “bringing jobs home” to a list you can check, one product at a time.